Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
