Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
